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Seal

Day trader. Writing about futures markets, geopolitics, and what actually works.

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Recent articles

Cartoon: Leopold Aschenbrenner riding out a market storm in a paper boat

The July Storm, or How a Drawdown Was Sold to You as a Genius's Collapse

How Situational Awareness reportedly lost 67% in July, retained around 80% year-to-date returns, and why liquidating positions doesn't mean liquidating the fund.

August 2, 2026

7 min read
A clean room for semiconductor manufacturing

Samsung and SK hynix Sold Expectations

China's CXMT, HBM, ordinary DRAM and DUV lithography: why the market hit Korean memory stocks and where the real threat is.

July 28, 2026

5 min read
«What really happens doesn't worry me, as long as it looks good on paper»

«What really happens doesn't worry me, as long as it looks good on paper»

Musk became the first trillionaire on the SpaceX IPO. I break down the company's fundamentals, why the market paid around two trillion, and how the listing actually hit the exchange — while everyone watched the fireworks.

June 23, 2026

10 min read
Monte Carlo Method in Trading

Monte Carlo Method in Trading

Building a mathematical model for passing an FTMO One-Step prop account through mass random simulation. Profitability threshold, blow-up probability, and the real number of days.

June 23, 2026

3 min read